From flying blind to
Instinct backed by numbers
Why gut-feel isn't enough
Running a business on instinct alone will take you a long way, but only so far. You can sense when a job will be trouble, which clients are worth keeping, and whether you’re making money or just staying busy. That instinct matters and it’s been earned the hard way. But instinct without numbers has a ceiling.
When you’re flying blind, decisions are made in a fog. You think you’re profitable, but you’re not sure. Cash feels tight because of a large invoice outstanding, yet months later nothing has improved. You price work that feels reasonable, then reach the end of the month wondering where the money went.
The issue isn’t your judgement; it’s that your judgement is operating without enough information underneath it. Small problems sit in the background until they’re harder to ignore.
What flying blind actually costs you
It often starts with pricing. You quote based on what feels competitive or what you’ve charged before. The work gets done and you move on, but you never really know whether the job paid. Labour runs over, scope shifts, costs creep in. By the time the real cost shows up, you may have worked for less than stacking shelves, and not realised it for months.
That’s the first cost: continuing work that doesn’t pay because you can’t clearly see which jobs are profitable. The second cost is hesitation. When the numbers aren’t clear, every decision carries doubt — hiring, equipment, turning work away. Without a clear picture, you default to effort. You say yes when you should say no, delay decisions that matter, and stay busy because it feels more comfortable than pausing to look.
The third cost is the one that wears you down: not knowing. Waking at 2am thinking about payroll, invoices, or whether yesterday’s quote was too cheap. It’s exhausting, and unnecessary.
Why instinct needs numbers
This isn’t a choice between instinct and numbers. Good operators use both. Experience gives you judgement; numbers tell you whether that judgement is holding up. A pilot with thousands of hours still checks the instruments. Skill without information is risky.
Your business is no different. When you add numbers to what you already know, guessing disappears. You can see which services make money and which just keep you busy. You know how much revenue you need to cover costs and pay yourself properly. You can tell whether pricing works or whether you’ve been slipping backwards without noticing. That knowledge changes how you operate.
The numbers that actually matter
You don’t need complex spreadsheets. You need a small set of numbers that tell you what’s really happening.
Gross profit margin shows how much you keep after direct costs. That margin pays for everything else — overheads, admin, vehicles, insurance, your wage. If it’s too thin, being busy won’t fix it.
Breakeven tells you the revenue needed to cover fixed costs. Once you know this number, decisions become clearer. You can see what the business can afford and what it can’t.
Cash flow shows when money actually lands in the bank. You can look profitable on paper and still run out of cash because profit doesn’t show timing. Understanding this removes surprises and gives you room to plan.
There are other useful numbers, but these three are where you start. Get them right and you’re no longer flying blind.
What changes when you can see clearly
When these numbers are visible, everything shifts. You stop taking work that doesn’t pay. You price based on what the business needs, not what feels acceptable. Decisions are made faster and with less stress. Difficult clients are no longer grey areas; you can see the cost and make clear calls.
The problems don’t disappear, but they become visible and manageable — not shadows in the background draining your energy.
How to make the change
This doesn’t happen overnight, and it doesn’t need to be complicated. Start with gross profit. Look at recent work and see what you made after direct costs.
Then work out your breakeven by adding up fixed costs and calculating the revenue needed to cover them.
Then pay attention to cash flow with a simple view of what’s coming in, what’s going out, and when. Look often enough that you know where you stand.
This doesn’t replace instinct; it gives it something to build on. Your gut tells you something feels off. The numbers show you why. That’s when decisions improve and the business starts taking less out of you.
You don’t have to stay in the fog. The numbers are already there. You just need to look at them.
​